Crowd behaviour

Last week, one of my friends pointed out to me that my many recent blog articles have been only on the energy efficiency topic and are not as unpredictable and/or interesting as the earlier ones. So this time am making a conscious attempt at not writing about energy. There is lot of construction activity in Bangalore and the place where I live in. The construction is not just restricted to residences but increased number of residences puts pressure on municipal corporation to provide more water and handle sewage. The road outside where we live, has been dug to lay in water and all kinds of pipes. That means our only road that gets us out of layout is closed and as is common place – a new temporary road has been found out. That road can not handle the pressures of the traffic. I was thinking about this scenario and it gave me an idea of today’s topic. Is there a deterministic (non-random) way of assessing the crowd traffic and its impact on better understanding of crowd behaviour, improved design of the built infrastructure? Crowd is being used in a generic sense and although it is about a group of people, here it is being used in a more generic sense as you would find anywhere in India – in that it is a collection of group of people, herd of cows and goats, a group of auto rickshaws, a grop of water tankers in summer and in general a group of vehicles that move in all possible directions even though the road may be straight ! If you leave in time, what is the probability in a scientific way of reaching your destination in a fixed time? Does crowd monitoring help? Let us explore.

Although crowds are made up of independent individuals or entities (remember not to leave aside the cows and buffalos and even vehicles that are driven by individuals) , each with their own objectives, intelligence and behaviour patterns, the behaviour of crowds is widely understood to have collective characterisitics which can be described in general terms. Since the Roman times, the mob rule or mob mentality is an implication of a crowd that is something other than the sum of its individual parts and that it possesses behaviour patterns which differ from the behaviour expected individually from its participants. If there is any scientific basis for the study of crowd behaviour, it must belong to the realm of social sciences and psychology, and that the mere mortals of physical sciences and engineering have limited or no business in getting involved with such studies. But I came across an article a few years ago that was interesting. It said understanding of field theory and flow dynamics is good enough to get started on getting a solution to crowd monitoring and may offer solutions that are technology based and control the crowd behaviour using developments in image processing and image understanding.

The article I mentioned above was one of IEE publications. Do not recall which one. But the thought process left an impression. It said our knowledge of study of gases can provide us insgihts into the study of understanding crowd behaviour. After all, a gas is made up of individual molecules, moving about more-or-less independently of each other, with differing velocities and directions. The ideal-gas theory provides a reasonably accurate basis of predicting the properties and behaviour of gases over a wide range of conditions, without considering behaviour of individual molecules. This was a major breakthrough and something not possible to conceive if the notion had prevailed that equations of motion for each individual molecule had to be solved in order to predict overall behaviour of a gas in any particular direction. What it also proved was an observation in mob rule, that the overall behaviour is something other than the sum total of its parts.

Now where does this similarity end? Surely the molecules of gas are different from cows and buffaloes and individuals and vehicles. They are far more complex and have a mind of their own. The theory of gases does not attribute intelligence to molecules. The possessed crowd that moves in a particular direction in a mindless pursuit is akin to the behaviour of charged particles under the influence of electric field. When you have a temporary road that is bi-directional, you not only have a crowd moving in one direction but in both and capable of inducing collisions, like particles of opposite charges.

I have known many techniques in recent years in image processing that use those well-established techniques for monitoring and collection of data on crowd behaviour. A key factor in the solutions is the use of techniques where inferences can be drawn by rising above individual pixels or objects – a notion akin to rising above molecules and individuals that make up the spaces.

Whether all of this can lead me to predict fixed time of arrival at destination is anybody’s guess. But it does provide insights into crowd behaviour and probably an interesting application of science that can make your journey to the destination enjoyable.

The Green Rebound

What is a rebound effect? In traditional sense, it is used in medicine to describe an effect where it shows the tendency of medication, when discontinued, causes a return of symptoms being treated to be more pronounced than before. So what has ‘green’ got to do with the rebound effect? Well, couple of weeks ago, there was an article in Nature News that has rekindled interest in this topic; which has been a point of discussion for many days now, I must confess. The green rebound, as I call it, is the rebound effect as applied to energy conservation. I have been emphasizing through many articles before on the need to be energy-prudent, to be energy conscious and hence do things which conserve energy. But just what happens when you save?

The green rebound, which is application of rebound effect to energy conservation, is a term that describes the effect that the lower costs of energy services, due to increased energy efficiency, has on consumer behavior. It generally indicates either an increase in number of hours of energy use, or increase in quality of energy use thereby creating a situation where you end up using more than you save and hence portraying a kind of a paradox.

For instance, if a 18W compact fluorescent bulb replaces a 75W incandescent bulb, the energy saving should be 76%. However, it seldom is. Consumers, realizing that the lighting now costs less per hour to run, are often less concerned with switching it off; in fact, they may intentionally leave it on all night. Thus, they ‘take back’ some of the energy savings in the form of higher levels of energy service (more hours of light). This is particularly the case where the past level of energy services, such as heating or cooling, was considered inadequate.

What is not debated is whether the effect exists. You may be surprised to know it does. What is being debated is the extent of this rebound? Like all other economic models, this one too is tending to overstate the reality.

1. The actual resource savings are higher than expected – the rebound effect is negative. This is unusual, and can only occur in certain specific situations (e.g. if the government mandates the use of more resource efficient technologies that are also more costly to use).

2. The actual savings are less than expected savings – the rebound effect is between 0% and 100%. This is sometimes known as 'take-back', and is the most common result of empirical studies on individual markets.

3. The actual resource savings are negative – the rebound effect is higher than 100%. This situation is commonly known as the Jevons paradox, and is sometimes referred to as 'back-fire'.

The rebound effect is a phenomenon based on economic theory and long-term historical studies, but as with all economic observations its magnitude is a matter of considerable dispute. Its significance for energy olicy has increased over the last two decades, with the claim by energy analysts in the 1970s, and later by environmentalists in the late 1980s, that increasing energy efficiency would lead to reduced national energy consumption, and hence lower green gas emissions. Whether this claim is feasible depends crucially on the extent of the rebound effect: if it is small (less than 100%) then energy efficiency improvements will lead to lower energy consumption, if it is large (greater than 100%) then energy consumption will be higher. Note the use of the relative terms ‘lower’ and ‘higher’: what exactly they are relative to has often been left unstated and has been a cause of much confusion in energy policy debates. Sometimes it refers to current energy consumption, at other times to a reduction in the future rate of growth in energy onsumption.

The claim that increasing energy efficiency would lead to reduced national energy consumption was first challenged by Len Brookes in 1979, in his review of Leach's pioneering work, A Low Energy Strategy for the UK, when he criticized Leach's approach to estimating national energy savings because of its failure to consider macroeconomic factors. This was followed in the early 1980s by similar criticism by Daniel Khazzoom of the work of Amory Lovins. The criticism of Brookes and Khazzoom was given the name of the Khazzoom-Brookes (KB) postulate by the economist Harry Saunders in 1992. The KB postulate may be described as: those energy efficiency improvements that, on the broadest considerations, are economically justified at the microlevel lead to higher levels of energy consumption at the macrolevel than in the absence of such improvements.

This work provided a theoretical grounding for empirical studies and played an important role in framing the problem of the rebound effect. It also reinforced an emerging ideological divide between energy economists on the extent of the yet to be named effect. The two tightly held positions are:

1. Technological improvements in energy efficiency enable economic growth that was otherwise impossible without the improvement; as such, energy efficiency improvements will usually back-fire in the long term.

2. Technological improvements in energy efficiency may result in a small take-back. However, even in the long term, energy efficiency improvements usually result in large overall energy savings.

Even though many studies have been undertaken in this area, neither position has yet claimed a consensus view in the academic literature. Recent studies have demonstrated that direct rebound effects are significant (about 30% for energy), but that there is not enough information about indirect effects to know whether or how often back-fire occurs. Economists tend to the first position, but most governments, businesses, and environmental groups adhere to the second.

The Nature news mentions a report from the Breakthrough Institute, an advocacy group based in Oakland, California, that is pushing for huge government investment in clean-energy technologies, suggests that various types of rebound effect could negate much, if not all, of the emissions reductions gained through efficiency. Energy efficiency should still be pursued vigorously as a way to bolster the economy and free up money for investments in low-carbon technologies, the institute says, but rosy assumptions about emissions reductions should be treated with caution.

Should there be an alarm due to such reports that you may across? Well no. Every coin has two sides and if anyone assumes that this report makes a non-case of energy efficiency, that is far-fetched. It only means that as we start conserving, we need to be more careful in terms of usage and hence I believe monitoring of your energy resources not just once in a while, but on a continuous basis will ensure the rebound does not take place. So monitoring is like that medicine, which once withdrawn, can have rebound effect.

Internet of Things

I, many times wonder, just where the management schools and management gurus were before the watershed year 1991. I will most likely research that topic some day and write about it too. But for now let us see what was special about 1991. I call 1991 a watershed year because it was called the ‘Year of the Internet’ – the year when the TCP/IP protocol suite made its way out of ARPANET and MIT/UCLA and started reaching out to the masses at large. This is my conjecture that the great management thought processes and the schools of thought that continuously generate and/or evolve alternative revenue streams (of which we have excess of these days), also germinated in that year.

In a way, I agree with Malcolm Gladwell’s thought process in Outliers – a classy book published couple of years ago – in which he argues that the main secret of success is the advantage (or just luck) of being born at the right time. He says that the many successful men today just were born between 1953 and 1956 and hence were of a right age by the year 1975 to take advantage of the personal computer revolution. He cites many examples including the greats such as Paul Allen (1953), Bill Joy (1954), Scott McNealy (1954), Steve Jobs (1955), Eric Schmidt (1955), Bill Gates (1955), and Steve Ballmer (1956). Be that as it may, I believe in this theory because I was mid-way in my life around the year 1991 and have seen both the worlds – the Internet-free and Internet-infested worlds and have honestly enjoyed both. But the fact is if I was not born at the right time to experiment with Internet at the University, then I would have missed out on a great learning concept.

Coming back to the “Year of the Internet” and birth of management catch-phrases (which were introduced by you-know-who), the juggernaut has rolled along. 1994, like 1991, changed the face of the world being tagged the ‘Year of the Web’ when the then clumsy looking HTTP protocol made its appearance on the world-stage for the first time outside of CERN premises. Since 1994, each year has been tagged year of something or the other. The trivialization, howsoever metaphorical, has led us to 2011 where the year is actually tagged as the ‘Year of Internet of Things’. We have passed through eras of advertising, searching, mobile commerce, gaming where each has been reduced to a commodity thus waiting for a new innovation each time. Just what is ‘Internet of Things’ and why it is interesting is what I will explain. Like a true neutral observer, I will detail in next couple of paragraphs, the benefits it will bring and likewise the challenges it will bring in. I will never forecast the future as since 1991, each and every forecast has faded away in comparison to reality.

Technically speaking, ‘Internet of Things’ describes a world-scenario where trillions of devices will interconnect and communicate. It will integrate ‘things’ such as the ubiquitous communication layer, pervasive computing including cloud computing and ambient intelligence (wondering what it is?). Internet of Things is a vision where ‘things’ such as ‘every day objects’ such as all home appliances are readable, recognizable, addressable, locatable and controllable via the Internet.

If Internet revolution connected billions of people world-wide through computers and mobile phones, Internet of Things would connect trillions of devices billions of people use. Imagine if all the objects in the world had all the information that they needed to function optimally. Buildings would adjust themselves according to the temperature. Ovens would cook things for exactly the right time. The handles of umbrellas would glow when it was about to rain. We long ago inserted "intelligence" into objects in the form of thermostats and the like; the internet of Things will extend this principle exponentially, giving us unprecedented control over the objects that surround us.

Energy monitoring, infrastructure security and transport safety mechanisms are just some of the envisioned applications that will have tremendous boost due to the Internet of Things. It is being enabled because of technology revolution that includes miniaturization of devices, emergence of IPv6 to resolve finite address space issues, mobile phones as data capturing devices and availability of low-power energy neutral devices.

The vision is great but the challenges are plenty. It is just a vision and its roadmap has many hurdles. Its primary acceptance would depend upon the progress of machine-to-machine interfaces and protocols of electronic communication, sensors, RFID, actuators etc.

As I see it today, the challenges would extend to robustness, responsiveness, privacy among other things, which have no clear cut answers today. Why should you know how much my oven takes to bake a cake? But what is the problem if your oven can learn from mine if I baked one a few minutes ago and use that learning to do a perfect bake for you?

As an article on the topic in ‘The Economist’ summarized a month or two ago, it may just turn out to be the ‘Year of Internet of Hype’.

Energy Intensity - why & wherefore

In these days of heightened awareness about global warming and factors that impact the planet adversely, one of the key terms you would have seen used in the news is ‘energy intensity’. What exactly is energy intensity? Broadly, it is a measure of the energy efficiency of a nation’s economy and is generally defined as the number of units of energy per unit of GDP. So, high energy intensity indicates a higher price of converting energy into GDP and vice versa.

Many factors influence an economy’s overall energy efficiency. It reflects general standard of living and weather conditions. It is common for particularly cold or hot climates to require higher energy for heating and cooling respectively. Generally, a nation that is highly economically productive, with mild and temperate weather will have lower energy intensity than a nation that is less productive with extreme weather conditions.

Energy efficiency improves when a given level of service is provided with reduced amounts of energy inputs or services are enhanced for a given amount of energy input. On the contrary, energy intensity indicates an economy’s capability to produce products with less energy use. Energy efficiency refers to the activity or product that can be produced with a given amount of energy; for example, the number of tons of steel that can be melted with a megawatt hour of electricity. At the level of a specific technology, the difference between efficiency and energy intensity is insignificant — one is simply the inverse of the other. In this example, energy intensity is the number of megawatt hours used to melt one ton of steel.

At the level of the aggregate economy (or even at the level of an end-use sector) energy efficiency is not a meaningful concept because of the heterogeneous nature of the output. The production of a huge number of goods, the mixing of the transport of freight and people, and the variety of housing and climates makes an aggregate energy intensity number based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a number that disguises rather than illuminates. A simple intensity measure can be calculated (as Energy/GDP), but this number has little information content without the underlying sector detail.

The distinction between energy intensity and energy efficiency is important when multiple technologies or multiple products underlie what is being compared. While it would not be sensible to compare the energy efficiency of steel production with the energy efficiency of ethanol production, it is possible to examine the energy intensity of all manufacturing.

An inverse way of looking at the issue would be an 'economic energy efficiency,' or economic rate of return on its consumption of energy: how many economic units of GDP are produced by the consumption of units of energy.

In India, today the energy requirements are in the range of 450-500 m MTOE (1 Metric Tonnes of Oil Equivalent = 11630 KWh). I cannot guarantee the correctness of these numbers as they would be probably a bit different. But the overall message is not affected by it. This requirement is expected to grow in next 20 years to triple this value and is estimated at 1500 m MTOE. If the economy also has to grow at 8+ % GDP, then it is imperative that that energy intensity should reduce. Today, the energy intensity in India is around 0.02 Kg of oil equivalent per Rupee of GDP. In the absence of focus on reducing energy intensity, in the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, the reduction is only expected to be around 0.018 (compared to 0.02) in next 20 years. But it can be significantly reduced to around 0.010 in the same time period if India resorts to some hybrid high-growth, high-efficiency scenario.

India has pledged to reduce energy intensity by 20% in next 10 years. To achieve this target, India has announced the Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme under the National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE) programme. Sectors that consume maximum energy will be assigned efficiency targets in April. The aim is to save 10 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) by 2014. NMEEE is a part of the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) launched in June 2008. Just how effective the scheme will be, will have to be seen, as it is expected that the targets are too soft to achieve the ambitious reduction in energy intensity trends India has promised at international fora.

Just to leave you with a thought. It is interesting to look at where and how countries get placed and bracketed with in a GDP vs energy efficiency graph. India is fairly low productive country at around 3000 USD GDP per capita (yes despite the recent growth) compared to the US, Hong Kong, Canada and Australia whose GDP per capita is in excess of 30,000 USD. Energy use however is moderately higher at around 250 USD (GDP per Million Btu) compared to the highly efficient economies like the Phillipines and Bangladesh (at 500 USD). The US and other highly productive countries are known to be quite energy efficient. So India is neither yet fully developed (in terms of GDP per capita) nor is energy efficient and has got bracketed with the likes of Viet Nam and Pakistan. Surely, India’s challenges are varied considering the size, population, geography and climate. The challenge remains and something to watch out for as to how India, once committed, would like to meet its energy intensity reduction targets while maintaining growth.

why smart grid?

The title makes a presumption that the reader is already aware of what a smart grid is. But I will take a couple of paragraphs to explain just what it is, why was it conceived and how it will help the world at large, if at all.

The term 'smart grid' was introduced in 2005 and like the elephant story, it means different things to different people. And that has also been the main source of confusion for its acceptance. I met a senior expert in the field last week and he said they have been doing the automation related work for decades now. No one noticed it till the catch-phrase 'smart grid' was introduced. But it is not that grids have been non-existent or even dumb before that time. So we will see what is so smart about it and what makes it different from earlier grids. But let us understand first what a grid really is. Let us trace the journey of power as it generated in a power plant till it reaches you for use. Power plants can be of many types, thermal, coal, hydro- or nuclear. Be that as it may, the generated power from the power plant is fed through power transformers. From the power transformers, it is received by the transmission substation. The journey of transmission grid terminates here. From here, the power is fed into the distribution substation. From the distribution substation, the power is transmitted to distribution transformers and to residences or commercial or industrial outfits.

Transmission lines mostly use three phase alternating current (AC), although single phase AC is sometimes used in railway electrification systems. High-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology is used only for very long distances (typically greater than 400 miles, or 600 km); submarine power cables (typically longer than 30 miles, or 50 km); or for connecting two AC networks that are not synchronized.

Electricity is transmitted at high voltages to reduce the energy lost in long distance transmission. Power is usually transmitted through overhead power lines. Underground power transmission has a significantly higher cost and greater operational limitations but is sometimes used in urban areas or sensitive locations. Power transformers are up transformers and transform the voltage from typically 12KV to 380KV. Through distribution substations this is down transformed to 220KV to 110KV, 25KV, to 20 KV and eventually to 230V that most of us use.

A key limitation in the distribution of electricity is that, with minor exceptions, electrical energy cannot be stored, and therefore it must be generated as it is needed. A sophisticated system of control is therefore required to ensure electric generation very closely matches the demand. If supply and demand are not in balance, generation plants and transmission equipment can shut down which, in the worst cases, can lead to a major regional blackout, something we are used to in India. To reduce the risk of such failures, electric transmission networks are interconnected into regional, national or continental wide networks thereby providing multiple redundant alternate routes for power to flow should (weather or equipment) failures occur. Much analysis is done by transmission companies to determine the maximum reliable capacity of each line which is mostly less than its physical or thermal limit, to ensure spare capacity is available should there be any such failure in another part of the network.

Energy demand is expected to grow by 55% by 2030. CO2 emissions grow faster than energy demand. An inefficient energy chain with 2/3rd of primary energy lost mostly due to power conversion. Between 7 and 15% of the electricity generated is lost on all networks.

Four major power regions of the country namely, North-Eastern, Eastern, Western and Northern are now operating as one synchronous grid (same frequency). Southern Regional grid is connected to this synchronous grid through HVDC links. For overall improvement and better grid management in the country, Power Grid Corporation of India has modernized all the Regional Load Dispatch Centers (RLDCs). The RLDCs correspond to the region and namely are : southern RLDC, northern RLDC, western RLDC, eastern RLDC and north-eastern RLDC besides the national LDC. These modernized RLDCs are greatly contributing to bring quality and economy in the operation of the power system besides improving data availability, visibility and transparency. With the adoption of state-of-the-art operational practices, proactive preventive maintenance, implementation of availability-based tariff, the modernization of RLDCs coupled with training & deployment of expert manpower and round the clock vigil for grid management, no major grid disturbances in the country have been encountered for the last 6½ years. Further, tripping of lines and minor grid disturbances in regional grids have come down so significantly that it can be reckoned as a benchmark achievement. For overall co-ordination, National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC) at Delhi,with back up at Kolkata, has been successfully commissioned. The power grid has spearheaded the implementation of Availability Based Tariff (ABT) across the country, which has a built-in commercial mechanism to reward proper grid behavior. This has significantly stabilized vital grid parameters, i.e. voltage and frequency thereby improving the quality of power.

So much about what it is. Why need to make it strong? In its present form, is it dumb? No it is not. But maybe, the answer lies in the meaning of the word smart. As per the dictionary, when used as an adjective it primarily means to be 'capable of quick and prompt action'. That is what is the crux of the function of smart grid. A 'quick and prompt action' requires a quick and prompt input to take an action. Smart grid enables this through a two-way communication between distribution and customers. A smart grid is a form of electricity network utilizing digital technology. A smart grid delivers electricity from suppliers to consumers using two-way digital communications to control appliances at consumers' homes; this saves energy, reduces costs and increases reliability and transparency. It overlays the ordinary electrical grid with an information and net metering system, that includes smart meters. Smart grids are being promoted by many governments as a way of addressing energy independence, global warming and emergency resilience issues. A smart grid is made possible by applying sensing, measurement and control devices with two-way communications to electricity production, transmission, distribution and consumption parts of the power grid that communicate information about grid condition to system users, operators and automated devices, making it possible to dynamically respond to changes in grid condition. Of course, I have given the definition which primarily stems from the distribution requirement of the transmitted power. You will hear totally different definition of smart grid from transmission experts and it is important to be aware of the distinction.

So just why it is important to have a smart-grid and why its existence is inevitable today than ever before? Reasons are many

1. Response to many supply-demand conditions: A smart grid could respond to events which occur anywhere in the power generation, distribution and demand chain. Events may occur generally in the environment, e.g., clouds blocking the sun and reducing the amount of solar power or a very hot day requiring increased use of air conditioning. They could occur commercially in the power supply market, e.g., customers change their use of energy as prices are set to reduce energy use during high peak demand. Events might also occur locally on the distribution grid, e.g., an MV transformer fails, requiring a temporary shutdown of one distribution line. Finally these events might occur in the home, e.g., everyone leaves for work, putting various devices into hibernation, and data ceases to flow to an IPTV. Each event motivates a change to power flow. Latency of the data flow is a major concern, with some early smart meter architectures allowing actually as long as 24 hours delay in receiving the data, preventing any possible reaction by either supplying or demanding devices.
2. Smart energy demand - Smart energy demand describes the energy user component of the smart grid. It goes beyond and means much more than even energy efficiency and demand response combined. Smart energy demand is what delivers the majority of smart meter and smart grid benefits. Smart energy demand is a broad concept. It includes any energy-user actions to enhancement of reliability, reduce peak demand, shift usage to off-peak hours, lower total energy consumption, actively manage electric vehicle charging, actively manage other usage to respond to solar, wind, and other renewable resources, and buy more efficient appliances and equipment over time based on a better understanding of how energy is used by each appliance or item of equipment. All of these actions minimize adverse impacts on electricity grids and maximize consumer savings. Smart Energy Demand mechanisms and tactics include: smart meters, dynamic pricing, smart thermostats and smart appliances, automated control of equipment, real-time and next day energy information feedback to electricity users, usage by appliance data, and scheduling and control of loads such as electric vehicle chargers, home area networks (HANs), and others.
3. Peak load management and time of day pricing - To reduce demand during the high cost peak usage periods, communications and metering technologies inform smart devices in the home and business when energy demand is high and track how much electricity is used and when it is used. To motivate them to cut back use and perform what is called peak curtailment or peak leveling, prices of electricity are increased during high demand periods, and decreased during low demand periods. It is thought that consumers and businesses will tend to consume less during high demand periods if it is possible for consumers and consumer devices to be aware of the high price premium for using electricity at peak periods. This could mean making trade-offs such as cooking dinner at 9pm instead of 5pm. When businesses and consumers see a direct economic benefit of using energy at off-peak times become more energy efficient, the theory is that they will include energy cost of operation into their consumer device and building construction decisions.
4. Real-time monitoring of grid performance will improve grid reliability and utilization, reduce blackouts, and increase financial returns on investments in the grid.

Finally, it boils down to whether we have sufficient electricity to meet demand. The answer is an affirmative no and hence focus shifted on optimal use of electricity. Starting from simple things like switching off lights and fans and AC when not required to shifting to CFLs and LEDs, each one of us can contribute a lot. From the utility side, the smart-grid will also offer similar benefits to the end-user while offering a platform for the utility to manage demand side requirements. The business case is clear for smart-grid and many Indian utilities are now looking at moving into smart grid implementations, not just because it makes the grid smart, it makes the business smarter too.

Time for resolve

After a hiatus of around 3 months, it is time for me to get back to the Innotomy blog articles again. It is completely inconsequential and surely unsolicited on my part to get into the reasons for this break. There can be many depending upon degree of confidence that I can attach to. Starting from as absurd as "there was no time" to saying "I got busy" (the two statements have different connotations although similar meaning!) Be that as it may, one can fit any theory to a set of observations and theories can be speculative but observations are never. The fact is that I could not write and the fact is that I intend to do a lot better than the last time I was forced into a break. And what better time to choose than the start of a new year! A title like "Time for Resolve" has lot more forceful intent than say a "Resolution time" which almost sounds rhetorical and almost implicitly gives you a exit clause from the resolution.

There is another reason why this should be time for resolve, rather than just a resolution time and that is because there is something about 2011 than it just being another new year ! It happens to be the year before 2012 - the much (in)famed doomsday year. Why not be resolute now for you may never get a chance to be one again! There is zero scientific evidence that anything at all will happen in 2012 but there are many things that could happen and easily threaten homo sapiens in the year 2012. Why 2012 ? These could even happen in 2011. There could be geomagnetic reversal, there could be an asteroid strike, or supernova. Or just a bad bout of H1N1 or a flu pandemic of another hitherto unknown viral strain or even a destructive nuclear dimension. Either ways, the time window to be doing good things is shrinking and it should be seen and used as a time for definite resolve!

So time is good and opportune alright but what to resolve? For a start and maybe for an end, as far as this space is concerned, the resolve is definitely to continue to contribute to this space at least twice a month. If I can do better than that in a month, it will be bonus but resolution time should be about setting realistic goals that can be measured - and two a month for next 12 months is a fairly concrete and achievable task.

What does 2011 have in store for us? Many things can happen - Here is a laundry list (actually only a sampled one) of what they could be from many domains..

1. India's 'green revolution' has other meanings too. While the one in early 1970s was focused on transforming the agricultural industry, the one in 2011 is more on focusing technologies that make the planet green. The focus on energy efficiency and her baby steps in bringing energy revolution will be debated alright but will bear significant fruits in making India a role model. India's energy revolution is replete with stories of innovation and self-discipline. India's generation capacity can not match its consumption capacity and in a sense the revolution is thrust upon us.
2. While energy is being focused because of both compelling international and domestic pressures, what India will learn is to focus on its other natural resource hugely mismanaged and that is water. While clean drinking water is a proverbial necessity of most Indians even today, the management of our fresh water, whether through rain water harvesting, management or through self-discipline will become need of hour.
   
3. Both of energy and water revolutions will need plenty of funds and economic recovery and India getting back to 8-9% GDP growth are good signs. The bull market returns and generally brings in lots of positive sentiments in the markets.
   
4. Venture Capital returns. energy sector, smart phone apps, social networking are amongst the leading domains that will attract VCs. Hopefully in 2011, VCs will be the the blue-sky optimists.
   
5. German management model returns. The Rhineland model of capitalism will start looking very appealing across the Indian landscape. Lots of mid-sized companies, with huge technical expertise, low debt and skilled workforces exporting niche products to the whole world. This model will guide the entrepreneurs in India through 2011
   
6. Apple backlash starts. It started showing signs with 4G in 2010 itself but Apple will soon learn the hard way, the downside of being a monopolist and will start facing the backlash that Microsofts and IBMs have witnessed in the past for precisely those reasons.
   
7. While Apple rides a trough, Android will ride a crest. Apple has graduated to being a monopoly, but Android is still in its early infancy of cool start-up idea and will continue to ride the wave and offer compelling alternative to Apple. The developer community of Android will have field days in 2011.
   
8. Iceland teaches world a lesson - and no not for its green marketing but interestingly enough for a role model that was thrust upon it. Unlike other countries, it could not sustain to bail out its banks during the economic slowdown. What resulted was a lot of pain for the country but it is showing signs of business recovery. The only conclusion being - its not necessary to bail out banks for recovery.
   
9. Russia comes into force at world stage so that the world will talk more of BRIC than of BASIC group. A raw materials supplier with a dictatorial government will soon be the technology power house that the world can not live without. The brains of Russia were never in doubt and have been known for a long time to be scientifically advanced. If they can leverage that into today's global economy, they can make BRIC look like bRic.
   
10. And many other miscellaneous things that may not have necessarily to do with this space but could bring joy to all of us - maybe an Indian victory in the Cricket world cup.
    

Hopefully each time I write this year, I would be able to write on each of above.. For now, it feels good to have started and I take this opportunity to wish you and your family a very happy, wealthy and healthy new year..

The Physical divide!

'Digital divide' refers to the gap between people with effective access to digital and information technology, and those with very limited or no access at all. There have been many theses and books written on this topic. I want to instead talk of the 'physical divide' which I would define as the gap between people living in a physical world with effective access to enhanced reality with digital technology and those with only a physical world. The difference between the two is subtle and needs to be explained. Its not that when we talk of digital divide, that there is no physical world. Its just that when I want to talk about the physical world I want to talk of the world itself rather than digital technology but I want to talk of the real world enhanced by use of digital technology. The so-called physical divide is addressed through a branch of computer vision and image processing generally referred to as 'augmented reality'. Augmented reality refers to the technology of combination of a real scene viewed by a user and a virtual scene generated by a computer that augments the scene with additional information. Mobile augmented reality which refers to providing augmented reality experiences on the mobile is the most developing and evolving technology today and has been described by MIT and Gartner in different studies as one of the top five disruptive technologies that will take centrestage in next 5 years.

We have heard of virtual reality. Without getting into the philospophy of 'reality', in contrast to virtual reality there is augmented reality. While virtual reality refers to computer-generated simulation environments that can simulate some places in the real (and imaginary) world, whereas augmented reality refers to augmentation or blending of real world scenes with computer generated additional information. On the spectrum between virtual reality, which creates immersive, computer-generated environments, and the real world, augmented reality is closer to the real world. This is why I chose to call it as a technology that addresses the physical divide. Augmented reality adds graphics, sounds, haptic feedback and smell to the natural world as it exists. Both video games and cell phones are driving the development of augmented reality. To take this to the horizon, let me give two examples of what this could mean in future. Think of a computer game that lets you drive a car on an F1 track. That would be virtual reality, but imagine instead of a video that has an actual recording of an F1 event which is augmented with your car which you are driving in a real F1 environment! Many of us know the Wii Nintendo game which was a pathbreaker in many ways. If you were to play, for example, a game of tennis in Wii, it would still be virtual reality. But imagine you playing a Wimbledon game with Roger Federer. If you could ever do that, that would be due to augmented reality.

As you can imagine, the applications are many. Augmented reality has extensive applications in the fields of medical science, entertainment, military training, engineering design, robotics, manufacturing, maintenance and repair, consumer design, hazard detection amongst others.

There are two commonly accepted definitions of augmented reality (AR) today.

1. Azuma's definition says that AR has three components : it combines real and virtual, that it is interactive in real-time and that it is registered in 3D
2. Milgram and Kishino defined in 1994 actually coined the term 'augmented reality' while defining what they called a reality-virtuality continuum. The continuum expands from a pure real world to a pure virtual world which is punctuated by mixed reality covering augmented reality, virtual reality and augmented virtuality.
   

To combine the physical and virtual world we need precise models, locations and optical properties of the viewer (or camera) and the display. The calibration of all the devices must be precise and need a mechanism to combine all local co-ordinate systems centered on the devices and the objects in a scene in a global co-ordinate system.

The biggest challenge for AR is a requirement of a very detailed description of the physical scene. Today AR struggles from finding optimal methods for registration of two distinct sets of images and keep them registered in real-time . Computer vision is sourcing some of the algorithms in this area for AR. AR also needs displays that can merge these two images.

Augmented reality systems are expected to run in the real-time so that the user can freely move in the environment, and are expected to show properly rendered augmented images. Thereby, implying that the two primary performance related issues with AR today are related to the update frequency of generating the augmented image and accuracy of the registration between the real and virtual image. While these may be easily stated, the challenges come from the technology barriers today for both registration and generation of augmented images.

Failure in proper registration and/or rendering leads to hardly desirable defects in the augmented scene and can show the real scene as less real than more virtual. AR requires that the augmentation has to have positive effect and that is a huge challenge today, not unsurmountable given the human desire to innovate always.

There are many AR solutions available today. The SixthSense augmented reality system lets you project a phone pad onto your palm and fingers and phone a friend -- without removing the phone from your pocket/purse.Some of the other AR solutions include the Arhrrrr - the augmented reality shooter, ARIS - the mobile media learning games, ARsights, eTreasure, LearnAR, SciMorph and the wikitude world browser.

Wireless applications are increasingly driving this technology into the mobile space where they offer a great deal of promise. Initially, AR required unwieldy headsets and kept users largely tethered to their desktop computers. The camera and screen embedded in smart phones and other mobile devices now serve as the means to combine real world data with virtual data; using GPS capability, image recognition, and a compass, AR applications can pinpoint where the mobile’s camera is pointing and overlay relevant information at appropriate points on the screen.

For example, the Wikitude World Browser is an augmented reality (AR) browser for the Android platform based on location-based Wikipedia and Qype content. It is a handy application for planning a trip or to find out about landmarks in your surroundings; 350,000 world-wide points of interest may be searched by GPS or by address and displayed in a list view, map view and “Augmented Reality” cam view. The latest version of WIKITUDE World Browser includes an Augmented Reality Photo Feature, which allows you to capture and share the AR camera view you experience through your mobile.

While I do not know when in future, if at all, we would be able to play up a tennis match with Roger Federer or Steffi Graf, AR is here to stay and has in many small ways has already helped many application areas. Outside of entertainment, in essential services such as medicine and surgery, there are already applications that help surgeons have a better view of the patient. Mobile AR will create many applications that will alter tomorrow's horizon. Like digital divide, whether physical divide continues to exist, we many never be able to tell, but changes are that the line between physical and virtual world will continue to blur in future.